The Magical Mirror in Bosnia: The Serb Republic and the Burqa

Republika Srpska steps up to a magical mirror and asks: Mirror, mirror on the wall–which is the prettiest place of them all?

The mirror answers: You have destroyed minarets where the most democratic country in Europe, Switzerland, just banned them. You are planning to ban the burqa like the most civic country in Europe, France. And you are disregarding judgments by the European Court of European Rights, just like the heart of Europe, Belgium.

This might make you not the prettiest place, but it makes you very European.

This is why Milorad Dodik is suggesting by proposing such as ban as a European standard: “Such law has been adopted in several European countries and we believe that we need to get closer to these European standards.” It is easy to dismiss this proposal as another incidiary pre-election play of Dodik’s party to polarize and mobilize, but also holds a mirror up to the rest of Europe.  It burqas are banned in Belgium and France, minarets in Switzerland, how different is the nationalist intolerance promote by Dodik and others in BiH?  While there are obvious differences between the RS and Belgium in the fact that Islam is a long-established in the latter and not in the former and that prior to 1991 a third or more of the inhabitants of the RS were Muslims. Even if burqas have not been worn and are worn only by few anywhere in Bosnia, burqas are not fundamentally alien to Bosnia. I doubt though that Dodik wants to be the Atatürk of Bosnia or that wearing burqas in the RS is both wide-spread or that it takes a ban to make wearers feel not welcome. Thus, in addition to proposing an illiberal solution to an arguably often illiberal expression of faith, it is about as provocative as a suggesting in Northern Ireland that religions involved in child abuse should be banned.

The fact that the burqa ban is getting support form such (un)expected quarters should give Sarkozy and the Belgium authorities some food for thought.

Fixing the Institutions will not Fix Bosnia: To Butmir or not to butt mir

Convening Bosnia’s political leaders in an EUFOR base outside of Sarajevo is not only reminiscent of Dayton where Tudjman, Izetbegovic and Milosevic were ‘impressed’ by a US air force base in Ohio, but also of an ill-fated session of the Yugoslav presidency in Spring 1991. The Yugoslav People’s Army in an effort to persuade the Yugoslav leadership to declare a state of emergency convened the meeting in an army barracks in Belgrade. However, its show of force failed and the Bosnian representative of the presidency, Bogic Bogicevic case the crucial vote against the army intervention.

Of course, unlike the JNA in 1991, EUFOR and the EU wants to disengage, rather than engage, so the differences begin here. The sense of crisis is similar, and palpable. Observers and politicians from different background and with diverging interests keep emphasizing the crisis Bosnia finds itself in—only the depth of the crisis appears to be a matter of debate.

Many commentators mistakenly identify the institutions as the prime problem of Bosnia. The complicated institutional set-up with veto rights, ‘vital national interests’ and entity voting appears to block reform at every turn of the corner. Looking at the unwieldy reality and the frequent stalemates in Bosnia’s institutions, it is tempting to see all ills in the Dayton institutions. Nevertheless, this analysis is plain wrong. True, the institutions are flawed and cost too much. They are not the core of the political crisis. Instead, badly conceived and impatient efforts to change them have been to blame for the crisis Bosnia finds itself in.

So why are institutions not the biggest problem? No matter of how many or little veto rights there are in Bosnia, it will be impossible to impose a decision on either entity without its at least tacit consent (or agreement to disagree). Even if entity voting (the ability of each entity’s MPs to block decision in Bosnian parliament) where to be abolished, a walk out by MPs could still stop decisions from being taken. If a decision against the will of one entity were taken, this would hardly lead to its acceptance in the entity in question and would further antagonize relations. Reducing opportunities for blockage are likely to make the decision making process smoother, but it will also increase the temptation to outvote the non-dominant communities. If one were to find issue with the institutions, it is less with the details of decision making, number of MPs, but with the larger institutional set-up, which pits two entities (and the two dominant nations) in a binary zero-sum game against one another. However, this element of post-Dayton Bosnia is not on the agenda as it is too controversial and contentious to touch.

The reason the constitutional talks, first in 2006 (that ended in failure) and the Butmir talks now, have a negative impact on the political climate. The current Butmir talks convey a sense of crisis and ‘last chance’ which does not only build pressure on elites to compromise, but also reinforces a sense of ‘everything is falling apart’ which has a way to become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Opening constitutional questions in such a dramatic way also is what lager parts of the elite like—it is these big issues which lend themselves so much more to defending national interests, than everyday boring politics. Furthermore, the EU and the US have no clear carrot and stick in this process. The only carrot (for some, i.e. Dodik) is the closure of the OHR, but it is also a stick for others (SDA, SBiH). Beyond this, the EU has not been able to offer anything which would be persuasive to compromise.

All this does not suggest that Bosnia does not need constitutional reform. However, this should not be hammered out in EUFOR basis in emergency-style meetings. Constitutional change has to be a gradual process which is not understood as a short term initiative. There is little beyond the obvious violations of the European Convention of Human Rights which needs to be changed with any urgency in the constitution. More important is that some constitutional changes lead to (re-)building a basic consensus one some key features of the Bosnian state. Such a process deserves the support of the EU.

Waiting for Godot, Bosnian style

Sometimes when something doesn’t happen, it still matters. A few weeks ago the Steering Board of the Peace Implementation Council met to decide on the future of the OHR in Bosnia.

However, while this meeting as widely anticipated a few months ago and maybe, possibly somehow bringing an end to the OHR. Instead, the meeting just marked the transition from one last High Rep to the next last High Rep (maybe the office should be renamed on the Office of the Last High Representative).

While the declaration lists the progress Bosnia made and thanks Lajcak for “the important contribution made … to peace implementation and Bosnia and Herzegovina’s progress towards integration into Euro-Atlantic structures,” the non-decision speaks louder than words. The OHR remains open, no change and the remaining conditions for the office closure (5+2) have only been fulfilled to a limited degree.

But the fact that it’s business as usual is a display of helpless by international actors. A new person does not mean a new strategy. The problems which the IC has had in Bosnia in recent years are not down to the personality of the High Representative alone. The PIC declaration does not display any new strategy or approach and we still don’t know about the mandate of the EUSR once the OHR will close down. It thus appears as if not only Bosnia is not yet ready for the next step, but also the international community.  So everybody is waiting, dancing around the other without knowing where the dance will take them, but probably nowhere good.

The Emporers New Clothes, Wile E. Coyote or don’t look down Mr. High Reprsentative

In a recent blog, Srecko Latal describes Miroslav Lajcak as an emperor without clothes. This is indeed a fitting metaphor which I have used to describe the OHR for a number of years. He praises Lajcak’s honesty for admitting that he is indeed without clothes during an interview and contrasts it with his previous diplomatic talk and his predecessors. However, is such openness a good thing?

To many, Lajcak has clearly expressed his frustration about the lack of backing his office has received from the EU already for quite a while.  In fact, saying that one has no powers is not always helpful. He has acted on a number of occasions (such as with the imposition of parliamentary and government voting rules in late 2007) in a manner which were bound to weaken the perceived power of the OHR. More importantly, the Bonn powers of the OHR always rested on the perception of power, much more than on their reality. Imposing laws and decisions, dismissing officials only works if those affected take it seriously. While Poplasen stayed in his presidential office in 1999 even after he was dismissed by HR Westendorp, he was no longer the president of the RS. However, this is effective if there is coercive power or at least its perception to back up the decision (which there is no longer) and if there is the perception that the decision is final and effective.  By saying that one no longer has the backing and power, the ones on the receiving end are not likely to be impressed.

In the story of H.C. Andersen, the emperor, tricked by the sellers of the imaginary cloth is confronted by the child which says “But he has nothing on at all.” What is his reaction?

“That made a deep impression upon the emperor, for it seemed to him that they were right; but he thought to himself, “Now I must bear up to the end.” And the chamberlains walked with still greater dignity, as if they carried the train which did not exist.”

Maybe it is wiser to end the procession with dignity to the end and then figure out what to do next. To use a different metaphor, Wile E. Coyote only falls down once he looks down. It is thus not (only) gravity which causes his fall, but also is recognition that laws of gravity will apply.  So before the laws of gravity also start applying to the OHR, it might be best not to look down… yet.